Quantenbedrohungen: Die neue Bedrohung durch Bitcoin oder ein Witz?

von

Der Coinbase-Analyst David Duong warnt davor, dass Quantencomputer langfristig eine Bedrohung für Bitcoin-Wallets, das Mining und die Netzwerksicherheit darstellen könnten. 🧠⚡

Bitcoin investors have always worried that a future supercomputer might one day guess their private keys and steal their funds. This fear has become normal in the crypto space over the years. 🤷‍♂️

However, recent research from Coinbase shows that the real danger could be much worse. Worse than a rogue toaster, I daresay. 🍞💥

David Duong, the head of investment research at the firm, recently took to LinkedIn to warn that the threat affects way more than just wallet safety. LinkedIn, that modern-day town crier, is now the bearer of bad tidings. 📱

Two Ways Quantum Computing Could Threaten Bitcoin

Bitcoin relies on two main pillars to keep it secure. The first is called ECDSA which handles digital signatures and proves who owns which coins. The second is SHA-256 (or the math problem that miners must solve to process transactions). 🧮

According to Duong, a powerful enough computer could attack both at once. Like a double entendre, but with more math and fewer laughs. 😅

The first threat is the one most people know, where an attacker could use Shor’s Algorithm to find a private key from a public one. A mathematical sorcerer’s spell, if you will. 🔮

The second threat, however, involves Grover’s Algorithm, which could allow a miner to find new blocks much faster than anyone else. This creates a massive imbalance in the mining industry and could lead to a 51% attack on the entire network. A race where the finish line is a mirage. 🏃‍♂️💨

Why 6.5 Million BTC Are Currently at Risk

The risk is not spread evenly across every wallet as some older address types are much weaker against these future machines. ⚠️

For example, the earliest coins mined by Satoshi Nakamoto use a format called P2PK. These addresses show the public key directly on the blockchain, making them easy targets. Like a locked door with a sign that says „Please, come in.“ 🚪

Data shows that about 32.7% of the total supply is currently in these vulnerable formats. This includes about 6.51 million Bitcoin that could be stolen if owners do not move them. A third of the total supply! More than the number of times I’ve misplaced my keys, but with far more severe consequences. 🧾

Even modern formats like Taproot (P2TR) might have weak spots if they are used in certain ways. This makes a broad migration to new security standards a priority for the community. Priorities, as ever, are as fluid as a champagne flute. 🥂

The Debate Between Skeptics and Alarmists

Not everyone agrees that a digital doomsday is on the stove. Adam Back, a legendary figure in the cypherpunk movement, thinks the threat is overblown. 🦾

He argues that the technology needed to break this encryption is still decades away. To him, these machines are more like lab experiments than actual weapons. A comforting thought, like a fire alarm that’s just a smoke machine. 🧨

Quantum computing and blockchains: Let’s match the urgency with the actual threats.

But first, where are we on timelines to an cryptographically relevant quantum computer?

Lately, the timelines are being overstated – leading to calls for urgent, wholesale transitions to…

– a16z crypto (@a16zcrypto)

On the other side, fund managers like Charles Edwards believe we need to act now. He warns that if the network does not show it is „quantum-proof“ by 2028, the price could suffer. 📉

He says that investors might get nervous and sell their holdings long before a hack ever happens. This divide in the community makes it hard to agree on a single path forward. A conundrum as perplexing as a crossword puzzle with no clues. 🧩

Related Reading: Hacks and Security Incidents in 2025: A Year That Exposed Crypto’s Weakest Links

How the Network Can Prepare for Quantum Risks

The good news is that the open-source community is already working on solutions. One path involves a „soft fork“ to add newer and stronger signatures. 🛠️

These would use math that even a quantum machine cannot easily solve. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already even listed several winners for these new standards. A reassuring thought, like a well-stocked pantry during a zombie apocalypse. 🍱

Investors should note that the transition will not be immediate, and even the fastest emergency plan could take about two to seven years to finish. 🕒

This longer path would make sure that every wallet and exchange has enough time to update their software without losing any funds. A marathon, not a sprint, but with more math and fewer snacks. 🏃‍♀️

Weiterlesen

2026-01-07 17:17